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*RAIN* - The Life and Thoughts of Zach

Jul. 7th, 2004

08:12 am - *RAIN*

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Date:July 7th, 2004 02:54 pm (UTC)
A downed tree hit by lightning blocked my path at one street so I figured I was probably safe because what're the odds of two disasters in close proximity? :)

If A & B are independant events,
P(A|B) = P(A&B)/P(B) = P(A)P(B)/P(B) = P(A)

So, given the tree was already hit, the odds of the second disaster is the same as without the tree... :)
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[User Picture]
Date:July 7th, 2004 05:58 pm (UTC)
I was well aware of this fact when I wrote that sentence. :)

Of course, how do you know A&B are truely independent? Is lightning really as likely to hit one spot as another? Perhaps it's less likely now because that tree was the highest point in the local area and now that it has fallen it is no longer the highest point so lightning will be attracted elsewhere. Perhaps that lightning strike "discharged" the local area sufficiently that it'll be a while before lightning is possible there again. Perhaps lightning only happens in a certain region of the storm and since that region has already passed over head, the wave of carnage has passed.

I don't know if any of these things are true. But I don't think it can be ASSUMED that A&B are really independent.

Nonetheless, I was going for irony rather than truth. :)
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[User Picture]
Date:July 8th, 2004 12:07 pm (UTC)
I figured as much. I was bored...

On the other hand, the fallen tree can cause a disaster that isn't lightning. :P

just messin' with ya.
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